Ethereum Briefly Hits $3,000: Why Traders Are Still Cautious

By: crypto insight|2025/12/03 16:00:06
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Key Takeaways:

  • Despite Ethereum’s rise to $3,000, skepticism persists among traders due to muted demand for derivatives and competitive blockchain growth.
  • The futures premium on Ethereum remains low, and options markets reflect hedge behavior even as the price rebounds.
  • Ethereum’s network fees dropped significantly amid subdued DEX activity, contrasting with a rise in fees on Tron and Solana.
  • The Federal Reserve’s recent moves to inject liquidity into the market have boosted economic stimulus expectations, impacting crypto sentiment.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-03 07:42:13

Ethereum (ETH) has recently touched the much-awaited $3,000 mark, stirring interest and sparking discussions in the cryptocurrency world. However, this achievement is being met with skepticism as the crypto community observes the broader picture, including competing blockchains and a distinct lack of enthusiasm in ETH derivatives. The rise to $3,000, while notable, does not fully align with the US stock market rally, leaving traders questioning what’s next for Ethereum.

Analyzing Ethereum’s Market Dynamics

At first glance, Ethereum’s 8% increase might suggest a bullish comeback; however, closer examination reveals a market riddled with caution. Traders remain wary, much of this stems from the behavior observed in derivatives markets. For example, the annualized premium on ETH monthly futures held steadily at 3%, signaling muted speculative interest—quite low compared to preferred leverage exposure metrics. This figure has remained unchanged over the prior week despite the price rally, reflecting weak confidence in further short-term gains.

The Tug of War with Traditional Markets

Ethereum’s performance is puzzling when juxtaposed with the US equities market, particularly tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which have rebounded significantly. The broader cryptocurrency market seemed buoyed by expectations of forthcoming economic stimulus, catalyzed by positive sentiment around the US Federal Reserve’s policy adjustments. Last week, the Fed concluded its balance-sheet reduction policy, signaling potential interest rate cuts shortly. This news initially improved market sentiment, with major financial institutions ramping up the use of repurchase agreements, subsequently increasing liquidity in the funding markets.

The stark contrast between Ethereum’s sluggish performance compared to the bounce observed in US stocks could raise alarm bells. The narrative that Ethereum might not fully capitalize on an expansionist global policy atmosphere is gaining traction. Central banks are showing a willingness to infuse the economy with liquidity, a move that traditionally lifts financial markets but hasn’t had a similar impact on Ethereum to the same degree.

Network Metrics: A Declining Trend

Ethereum’s troubles are not limited to comparative price analysis alone. Its network health presents additional challenges. Weekly transaction fees—an indicator of network activity—have slid by an alarming 49%, hitting low points not seen in over three years, as of November. This comes during a period when rival blockchains, like Solana and Tron, are displaying growth, reflected in a 9% increase in their network fees. What explains this decline in Ethereum’s fees? The answer is multifaceted but chiefly involves a slower pace of activity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which saw volumes drop precipitously from $36.2 billion in August to just $13.4 billion recently. This steep dip points to a cooling interest in Ethereum-based decentralized applications (dApps), a primary use case for ETH beyond simple transactions.

Furthermore, a dormant Ethereum whale, an entity inactive since Ethereum’s genesis block in 2015, recently moved 40,000 ETH to a new address. Such significant movements can unsettle market participants, prompting speculation about large-scale sales, further contributing to market unease.

Understanding the Derivative Markets’ Skepticism

Ethereum’s derivatives market paints a picture of caution. Traders are not entirely convinced of sustained upward momentum. This sentiment is captured in the trading dynamics of ETH options. As of recent data, put options (bets on price declines) were priced at a 6% premium compared to call options (bets on price rises). Generally, such pricing reflects bearish expectations, suggesting traders are actively hedging against potential downturns.

This hedging activity is noteworthy even as US equities indicates growing risk appetite, underscoring a divergence in confidence levels between traditional and cryptocurrency markets. The hesitance might be attributed to uncertainties beyond price performance, such as regulatory scrutiny. Various governments, especially China, have intensified efforts to limit unauthorized digital asset movements and enhance anti-money laundering frameworks, directly affecting crypto investor sentiment.

Broader Implications of Market Behaviors

The Ethereum network is approaching a significant upgrade, dubbed the Fusaka, promising improvements in scalability and wallet management. Nevertheless, the anticipated technological improvements have not yet sparked a significant uptick in demand for Ethereum’s ecosystem applications. The observed weakness in decentralized application engagement further contributes to the broader market ambivalence towards Ethereum.

Ethereum’s exposure to global economic shifts cannot be understated. While the Federal Reserve introduced $13.5 billion into short-term markets—a secondary highest level injection in recent years—such liquidity infusions have yet to translate into renewed vigor for Ethereum. Instead, the capital seems to be favoring other developing sectors or even moving into high-yielding alternative ventures.

The Road Ahead for Ethereum

Much anticipation surrounds whether Ethereum can break through its current challenges and leverage its technological advancements and ecosystem improvements. Institutional actors might wield substantial influence in determining the next phase. Moreover, the potential decoupling of cryptocurrency fundamentals from broader economic stimuli could reshape how Ethereum and other significant crypto assets react across financial landscapes. Only time will tell if Ethereum’s narrative will shift towards a more optimistic horizon or remain tethered to cautious hope.

FAQs

How has Ethereum’s fee reduction impacted its market position?

Reduction in Ethereum’s network fees reflects decreased usability, particularly across decentralized exchanges. Investors could interpret this as a warning sign, indicating lower transaction volumes and potentially weak network engagement.

Why are Ethereum traders demonstrating skepticism despite positive price movement?

The skepticism among traders primarily stems from low futures premiums, weak demand for long exposures, and bearish option pricing. Such conditions hint at uncertainties around Ethereum’s ability to sustain its upward trajectory.

How have external economic policies affected Ethereum recently?

The Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections and less restrictive monetary policies have buoyed traditional markets but have had a limited effect on Ethereum, possibly due to lingering regulatory and competitive pressures within the crypto industry.

What impact have rival blockchains had on Ethereum’s current state?

Rival blockchains, like Solana and Tron, have shown growth in transaction activity, capturing some market share that might have otherwise belonged to Ethereum. This shift reflects competitive pressures and alternative avenues for digital asset engagement.

What are the potential risks Ethereum faces regarding regulatory scrutiny?

Ethereum faces risks from stricter global regulations, particularly those cracking down on money laundering and unauthorized transactions. Such regulatory environments can create an atmosphere of caution, impacting investor sentiment and subsequent market movements.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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