Grayscale Research Flags Bitcoin Bottom as Bull Market Signs Appear

Key Takeaways:

• Grayscale Research indicates Bitcoin has formed a bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range.
• On-chain data shows recent buyers nearing breakeven after a 20% recovery from $63,000 lows.
• Bitcoin Bull Score Index moves to neutral, signaling potential bullish phase.
• BTC momentarily peaks at $78,417 amid geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices.
• Market activity spikes with increased trading volume and open interest in derivatives.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-04-22 12:20:34

Bitcoin’s Bullish Turn Predicted by Grayscale

Bitcoin price is speculated to have hit a bottom between $65,000 and $70,000, based on Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl’s analysis. On-chain data reveals that recent buyers are inching close to breakeven as Bitcoin bounces from February’s $63,000 lows with a 20% rebound. Current realized price hovers around $74,000, easing sell pressure and boosting investor confidence towards a new bull phase.

Shifts in Bitcoin Market Indicators

Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant highlights a shift in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index to neutral for the first time in this bear market cycle, indicating volatility and possible bullish trends. Caution remains, as similar patterns in March 2022 preceded a price drop. Even so, market sentiment is bolstered by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and early investor accumulation beyond previous recovery cycles.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to Geopolitical Developments

A sudden increase in Bitcoin price to $78,417 aligns with an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire announced by President Trump, which also nudged oil prices below $90 per barrel. The US maintains naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz as diplomatic efforts continue, minimizing immediate conflict risks that could potentially disrupt markets, indirectly impacting Bitcoin’s trading dynamics.

Derivatives Market and Liquidity Dynamics

Bitcoin’s rebound is further evidenced by heightened activity in the derivatives market, with futures open interest jumping 6% to $59.53 billion, highlighting bullish sentiment among traders. This shift is amid broader liquidity adjustments in the US, reflecting growing interest and institutional participation, a critical element in sustaining upward price trajectories.

Role of Federal Reserve Liquidity in Bitcoin’s Performance

Bitcoin’s recovery aligns with increased US Federal Reserve liquidity. Coincidentally, Bitcoin surpassed analyst Benjamin Cowen’s resistance band, a historical marker for key market shifts. This confirms Bitcoin’s close correlation with US liquidity trends, emphasizing its sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and liquidity shifts.

FAQ

What does the Bitcoin Bull Score Index indicate?

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index is a metric used to gauge market sentiment, with a neutral position suggesting potential bullish activity, though past patterns also caution about volatility.

How does US-Iran geopolitical tension affect Bitcoin prices?

Geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Iran ceasefire, impact global oil prices and market stability, indirectly affecting Bitcoin due to traders’ risk assessments and hedge strategies.

Why are Bitcoin derivatives significant for market trends?

A surge in Bitcoin derivatives, indicated by open interest, reflects trader sentiment and market confidence, critical in predicting potential price movements and sustaining trends.

How crucial is US Federal Reserve liquidity to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely aligned with US Federal Reserve liquidity. Increased liquidity often correlates with positive Bitcoin performance, highlighting its reliance on broader economic factors.

What is the significance of the $65,000–$70,000 price range?

This range is identified as Bitcoin’s potential market bottom, providing a baseline for recovery and setting the stage for possible bull market phases, according to Grayscale Research.