US-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Oil Plunge, Bitcoin Surge, and Gold Rally

April 8, 2026 – US President Donald Trump has announced his agreement to suspend bombing and attacks against Iran for a period of two weeks, creating what is being described as a "two-sided ceasefire." The decision was made following consultations with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir.

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Key Condition for Ceasefire: Iran must agree to the "full, immediate, and safe" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has committed to ensuring safe passage through the strait during the two-week truce.

Negotiation Progress: President Trump stated that the US has received a "10-point proposal" from Iran, which he described as a "viable basis for negotiation." Further talks are scheduled to take place in Islamabad. Additionally, CNN, citing White House officials, has reported that Israel has also agreed to join the two-week ceasefire.

It is important to note that Iran had previously rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to hostilities, war reparations, and the lifting of sanctions. Iran's Foreign Minister emphasized that a temporary ceasefire "does not mean the end of the war."

Volatility in Three Major Asset Classes

1. Oil (Sharp Decline)

News of the ceasefire triggered a dramatic drop in oil prices as market panic over supply disruptions rapidly eased.

Context: Prior to the conflict, WTI crude was trading below $58/barrel. Even after the steep decline, WTI remains approximately 55% higher than pre-war levels. Analysts warn that even with a permanent agreement, infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply normalization could take months.

2. Gold (Rising)

Gold prices rose following the ceasefire announcement, supported by a weaker US dollar and lingering geopolitical uncertainties.

Special Note: Gold has fallen nearly 10% since the conflict began in late February. Its traditional safe-haven function has been somewhat diminished, partly due to investors being forced to liquidate gold positions to cover losses in other markets.

3. Bitcoin (Sharp Rally)

Bitcoin has rallied sharply on the back of improved risk appetite following the ceasefire news, from near $69,000 before the announcement to around $72,000 so far. The rise in Bitcoin coincided with a broader improvement in risk asset sentiment. US stock futures moved sharply higher, while oil prices plunged.

Final Thoughts on Bitcoin

Despite the sharp rally, caution is warranted. The $70,000–$72,000 zone has historically been strong resistance. The ceasefire is only temporary (two weeks), and any breakdown in negotiations could trigger a sell-off toward the $62,000–$65,000 support zone. For now, Bitcoin needs to close decisively above $72,500 to confirm a true breakout; failure to do so within 48–72 hours could lead to a swift retracement.

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